The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Despite a solid 70.3% win rate for the Buy 7d / Sell 1d strategy, past average recovery time of 36.5 days shows price can stay below pre-dividend levels for several weeks if the trade goes against you.
• •Quality Score of 30/100 and Tier 3 classification increase the risk of adverse fundamental or macro headlines that could overwhelm typical dividend-pattern behavior.
• •ATR of 1.55% indicates moderate volatility; adverse 1–2 day swings can materially erode the expected 1.07% capture return.
• •Historical 7-day win rate of only 47.3% versus 14-day win rate of 53.8% signals that very short holding periods can be noisy despite 100% gap fill rates historically over 7–14 days.
• •Medium confidence rating suggests the backtested edge is present but not robust enough to ignore position sizing and stop/exit discipline.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date of 2026-01-06 and ensure trading calendar alignment for your broker/market.
• 2.Size the position modestly given BNS’s low Quality Score (30/100), Tier 3 tiering, and medium confidence label.
• 3.Time entry roughly 7 days before ex-date (around 2025-12-30), ideally on intraday weakness to improve expected capture yield.
• 4.Set a clear exit plan to sell 1 trading day after ex-date (2026-01-07), unless price action or market conditions materially change.
• 5.Monitor price volatility (ATR 1.55%) and be prepared that, if the trade moves against you, historical average recovery has taken about 36.5 days.
• 6.Review broader market and bank sector news around the trade window, as fundamental shocks can override historical capture patterns.