Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Expected Return of 1.50% for the Buy 1d / Sell 7d strategy is modest and only moderately above the forward dividend yield of 0.98%, leaving a thin edge after trading costs and slippage.
• •Historical Win Rate for the Buy 1d / Sell 7d strategy is 63.1% (sample size 157), which is favorable but not high enough to eliminate the risk of meaningful drawdowns.
• •Average Recovery Days of 41.4 indicates that when the price drops around ex-date, full recovery can take over a month, creating potential capital tie-up or drawdown if not managed.
• •14-Day ATR of 2.22% implies daily price swings that can easily exceed the 0.5107 dividend amount, so short-term price noise may overwhelm the dividend credit.
• •Quality and Long-Term Scores at 50/100 and Tier 3 status introduce some business/valuation risk that can interact poorly with market volatility during the capture window.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm ex-dividend date of 2026-01-02 and ensure trading calendar aligns with planned entry/exit dates.
• 2.Determine position size that respects volatility (14d ATR 2.22%) and keeps potential drawdowns manageable.
• 3.For capture: place a buy order near the close 1 trading day before ex-dividend (Classic Capture: Buy 1d before).
• 4.Set an initial exit plan to sell around the close 7 trading days after ex-dividend, with a profit target near the 1.5% expected return.
• 5.Monitor price behavior around ex-date; consider tightening stops or taking profits early if the position moves favorably faster than expected.
• 6.Reassess holding beyond the capture window only if you are comfortable with a sub‑1% yield and a mid-tier long-term profile (Quality and Long-Term Scores 50/100, Tier 3).