Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Despite an attractive Expected Return of 6.86%, this is far above the 0.67% cash dividend yield for the period, so results are heavily dependent on price behavior, not the dividend itself.
• •Historical Average Capture Yield of 6.848% and 79.0% win rate for the 7d/1d strategy are strong but not guaranteed; roughly 21% of trades have historically been losers.
• •ATR of 1.89% indicates non-trivial short-term volatility, which can amplify gains but also losses around the event window.
• •Medium overall Confidence Level and only moderate Quality/Long-Term Scores (both 40/100) increase the risk that company- or market-specific news can disrupt typical pre-/post-dividend patterns.
• •Even with a 99.5% gap fill rate and 30.4 average recovery days, capital can be tied up for about a month if the trade moves against you before recovering.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date (2026-01-21) and payment date (2026-02-13) have not changed before acting.
• 2.Size the trade based on your risk budget, recognizing ATR of 1.89% and the possibility of a 21% historical loss rate on the 7d/1d strategy.
• 3.Plan entry around 7 trading days before ex-dividend (approximately 2026-01-14), watching for confirmation that 5-day momentum remains positive (~0.12% per day currently).
• 4.Set a preliminary exit plan for 1 trading day after ex-dividend (2026-01-22), with contingency rules if price gaps sharply against you.
• 5.Monitor price action and news leading into the ex-dividend date for any fundamental developments that might override typical capture behavior.
• 6.For long-term investors, compare CL’s 2.69% yield and Tier 3, 40/100 quality profile against higher-quality, higher-yield alternatives before adding to a core income portfolio.