DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (DBRG)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Dec 31, 2025
Dividend
$0.0100
Forward Yield
0.26%
Payment Date
Jan 15, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 4Low Confidence
Capture Score
44Long-Term Score
15Quality
15Opportunity Rank
43Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -107 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Tue, Dec 30
If trading, enter approximately 1 trading day before the 2025-12-31 ex-dividend date, aligned with the backtested best strategy (Buy 1d / Sell 14d).
Ex-Date
Wed, Dec 31
Dividend locked in
Exit
Wed, Jan 14
Plan to exit 14 trading days after the ex-dividend date, targeting the historical average return of 1.46% with a 58.3% win rate for this specific timing.
Expected Return
+1.46%
Historical Win Rate
58%
Risk Factors
- •Very small dividend (0.0100 on a $13.92 stock, ~0.07% for this event) means the trade’s economics depend almost entirely on price movement, not the dividend itself.
- •Historical strategy results are mixed: while Buy 1d / Sell 14d averages +1.46% with 58.3% win rate, other windows show negative average returns (e.g., -2.43% for Buy 14d / Sell 7d, -0.92% for Buy 1d / Sell 7d).
- •Capture Score is only 44/100 and Confidence Level is LOW, signaling weak robustness of the backtest and higher model uncertainty.
- •High volatility (14-day ATR of 3.64%) is large relative to the tiny dividend, so short-term swings can easily overwhelm any dividend-related edge.
- •Momentum is conflicting: short-term 5-day slope is mildly positive (+0.2451%/day) but 20-day slope is negative (-0.1088%/day), suggesting no clear directional trend.
- •Sample size of 36 events is moderate but not strong enough to overcome the low quality/low confidence signals.
- •Gap fill is high (91.7% for both 7- and 14-day windows) and average recovery is fast (2.5 days), yet this has not translated into consistently profitable shorter-window strategies, indicating noisy price behavior.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm the current ex-dividend date (expected 2025-12-31) and ensure trading calendar alignment.
- 2.Decide if your goal is income or tactical trading; skip DBRG for long-term income due to the 0.29% yield and Tier 4 quality.
- 3.If pursuing a capture trade, size the position small relative to portfolio given high volatility (ATR 3.64%) and low confidence.
- 4.Target entry approximately 1 trading day before the ex-dividend date, in line with the Buy 1d / Sell 14d backtested strategy.
- 5.Set a planned exit 14 trading days after the ex-dividend date, and predefine a maximum loss threshold due to the stock’s volatility.
- 6.Monitor price behavior closely in the initial 2–3 days after ex-date, given the 2.5-day average recovery, and be prepared to adjust if price action deviates sharply from historical patterns.
- 7.Review broader fundamentals and news for DBRG before execution, since the quantitative metrics show low quality and low confidence.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
14-Day HoldBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +1.46% | 58% | 36 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | -0.92% | 53% | 36 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | -0.37% | 47% | 36 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.56% | 47% | 36 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | -2.43% | 44% | 36 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
DBRG offers a very low 0.29% forward yield and holds weak quality metrics (Quality Score 15/100, Tier 4), making it a poor candidate for long-term dividend income. The best tested capture setup is a 14-day hold around the ex-date with a 1.46% average return and 58.3% win rate, but high volatility, a tiny payout, and low confidence in the data keep this a speculative, low-quality opportunity.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for DBRG
Avg Capture Yield
0.33%
Avg Recovery Days
2.5
7-Day Gap Fill
92%
14-Day Gap Fill
92%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.