Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Dec 31, 2025
Dividend
$0.3000
Forward Yield
0.20%
Payment Date
Feb 2, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 2Medium Confidence
Capture Score
52Long-Term Score
60Quality
60Opportunity Rank
79Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -107 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Tue, Dec 30
Enter approximately 1 trading day before the ex-dividend date (around 2025-12-30, adjusted for market calendar and actual trading days).
Ex-Date
Wed, Dec 31
Dividend locked in
Exit
Wed, Jan 14
Plan to exit about 14 trading days after the ex-dividend date, aligning with the recommended strategy that historically delivered ~0.51% average return and a 53.8–53.9% win rate.
Expected Return
+0.51%
Historical Win Rate
54%
Risk Factors
- •Very small dividend vs. price: the $0.30 dividend on a $630.34 stock (0.19% yield) is tiny relative to typical daily price moves (14-day ATR of 3.83%), so returns will be driven more by price action than by the dividend itself.
- •Only modest edge: historical 14-day hold strategy shows ~0.51% expected return and ~53.9% win rate, which is a thin statistical advantage and may not cover slippage or commissions for smaller accounts.
- •Capture metrics are only slightly favorable: 7-day and 14-day win rates around 50.5–53.3% with a 99% gap-fill rate suggest recovery tends to occur but not with a strong probability premium.
- •Moderate volatility in a very high-priced stock: an ATR of 3.83% on a $630+ price translates to sizable dollar swings, amplifying P&L noise around a very small dividend.
- •Recovery speed is not rapid: average recovery of 35.7 days is longer than the 14-day target window, so you may realize the statistical edge only over multiple cycles, not reliably in a single trade.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date (currently 2025-12-31) and ensure market calendar alignment.
- 2.Decide if the extremely low 0.19% yield fits your objectives; skip for core income portfolios.
- 3.If pursuing capture, size the position conservatively given the high share price and 3.83% ATR.
- 4.Plan entry roughly 1 trading day before ex-date (around 2025-12-30), using limit orders to control slippage.
- 5.Set a target holding window up to 14 trading days after ex-date, with flexibility to exit earlier if the post-dividend gap is filled and profit targets are met.
- 6.Monitor price action closely in the first 7–14 days after ex-date, since historical gap fill rate is 99% and win rates hover near 50–54%.
- 7.Re-evaluate ongoing trades if broader market conditions or stock-specific news significantly increase volatility beyond the current 3.83% ATR.
- 8.Review transaction costs and tax impact, as a thin 0.5% expected edge can be eroded by fees and short-term tax treatment.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.48% | 57% | 105 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.39% | 55% | 105 ex-dates |
14-Day HoldBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +0.51% | 54% | 104 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.06% | 50% | 105 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.56% | 50% | 105 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
As a long-term dividend holding, $DDS is weak: a 0.19% forward yield and a moderate 60/100 quality score don’t justify tying up high-priced capital for income. As a dividend capture trade, the setup is more interesting, with a recommended 1-day-before/14-day-after strategy showing about a 0.51% expected return and ~54% win rate, but the edge is thin and driven mostly by price behavior rather than the small dividend.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for DDS
Avg Capture Yield
0.44%
Avg Recovery Days
35.7
7-Day Gap Fill
99%
14-Day Gap Fill
99%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.