Eagle Point Income Company Inc. (EIC)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical capture statistics are only moderate: the recommended strategy (buy 7d / sell 1d) shows a 1.56% average return with a 67.9% win rate on a sample size of 78, leaving a sizable 32.1% chance of loss on each trade.
• •Volatility is non-trivial: 14-day ATR of 1.89% is meaningful relative to the dividend ($0.11) and expected return (1.56%), so normal price swings can easily offset the dividend credit.
• •Recovery is slow on average: 28.9 average recovery days and negative performance for longer holds (e.g., buy 1d/sell 7d = -0.77%, buy 1d/sell 14d = -1.03%) indicate that ‘waiting it out’ can be costly.
• •Quality and long-term scores are low (25/100 each, Tier 3), meaning adverse fundamental or sentiment shocks around ex-date could lead to deeper-than-typical drawdowns.
• •Forward yield is only 3.82%, and the single payment of $0.11 is small relative to price, so the trade relies heavily on price behavior patterns rather than dividend size.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current price, yield, and any recent news on $EIC to ensure no fundamental deterioration since these stats were compiled.
• 2.If pursuing a capture trade, schedule a potential entry window around 7 trading days before the 2026-01-12 ex-dividend date (approximately 2026-01-05), adjusting for actual market calendar.
• 3.Before entry, verify that short-term momentum remains constructive (ideally 5-day slope still positive near the current 0.2508%/day and 20-day slope positive near 0.0922%/day).
• 4.Size the position conservatively, recognizing the 14-day ATR of 1.89% and a roughly 32% historical chance of a losing outcome even with the best strategy.
• 5.Set a predefined exit plan for the first trading day after ex-date (target 2026-01-13), including a maximum acceptable loss threshold if the typical pattern fails.
• 6.Do not treat EIC as a long-term income anchor; if held beyond the capture window, reevaluate based on updated quality, yield, and price behavior.
• 7.Review post-trade performance vs. the expected 1.56% average return and 67.9% win probability to refine future capture decisions in similar Tier 3 names.