Enel Chile S.A. (ENIC)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Price and gap behavior are derived from a limited sample size (19 events), so historical win rates (e.g., 68.4% for Buy 1d / Sell 14d) may not be robust.
• •5-day momentum slope is slightly negative at -0.0909% per day, which contradicts the ideal positive short-term momentum for a capture trade, even though 20-day momentum is modestly positive at 0.0454% per day.
• •Volatility is elevated with a 14-day ATR of 3.32%, which is high for a small absolute dividend of $0.035 and can easily overwhelm the dividend and expected 1.70% capture return.
• •Although 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are 100%, the average recovery time of 49.7 days is much longer than the 14-day target exit, increasing mark-to-market risk if price recovers slowly.
• •Quality Score of 40/100 and Tier 3 classification increase the risk of adverse company- or market-specific news impacting the short window around the dividend.
• •Medium overall confidence and mixed metrics (e.g., strong average capture yield of 2.98% but modest forward yield of 3.48%) highlight potential instability in past patterns.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm ex-dividend date (currently 2026-01-16) and watch for any corporate announcements that could alter the schedule or dividend amount ($0.0350).
• 2.Validate that current price and forward yield (3.48% at $4.02) still hold closer to the trade date; adjust position sizing if volatility or price changes significantly.
• 3.If pursuing capture, plan an entry on the trading day before ex-date, aligned with the 1-day pre-ex strategy.
• 4.Predefine exit rules around 14 days after ex-date, including a maximum loss threshold given the 3.32% ATR and the small absolute dividend.
• 5.Monitor short-term momentum into ex-date; reconsider or reduce size if the 5-day slope remains negative or worsens.
• 6.Size the position conservatively due to Tier 3 quality (Quality Score 40/100) and medium confidence, and avoid relying on ENIC as a core long-term income source.
• 7.If price fails to recover within the 14-day window, decide in advance whether to hold toward the average 49.7-day recovery horizon or to exit strictly on time-based rules.