Four Corners Property Trust, Inc. (FCPT)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are 0.0%, indicating that past price drops around ex-date have not reliably recovered within those windows.
• •Win rates are only moderate: 52.5% for 7-day and 57.5% for 14-day windows, implying close to coin-flip outcomes on short capture holds.
• •The recommended Classic Capture (buy 1 day before, sell 7 days after) has a modest expected return of 0.73% with a 62.5% win rate; results are positive but not strong enough to be considered high-conviction.
• •Average Capture Yield of 2.066% is historically good, but the point estimate for this specific setup (0.73%) is much lower, suggesting variability and potential drawdowns.
• •Reported 14-day ATR of 0.00% and flat 5-day and 20-day momentum slopes (0.0000% per day) are likely data artifacts; if taken literally, they give no volatility or trend information, which reduces tactical confidence.
• •Medium overall confidence means results depend heavily on short-term sentiment and broader market or interest-rate moves around year-end rather than a clear, repeatable pattern.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current $FCPT price and yield are close to the provided $23.36 and 6.28% before acting.
• 2.Review your portfolio exposure to REITs and interest-rate–sensitive assets to ensure position size in $FCPT fits your risk limits.
• 3.For long-term income: plan a buy-and-hold allocation sized for a 6%+ yield, not dependent on short-term capture outcomes.
• 4.For capture: if pursuing the higher-return historical setup, target an entry about 7 days before the 2025-12-31 ex-dividend date.
• 5.Set a limit order around your desired entry level rather than using market orders, given potential pre–ex-date volatility.
• 6.Decide in advance on your primary exit: 1 day after ex-date for the Buy 7d / Sell 1d strategy, with contingency rules if price gaps down.
• 7.Define a max loss or adverse-move threshold (e.g., percent below entry) at which you will exit even if the planned capture window is not complete.
• 8.Reassess position post–ex-date: if price remains attractive and fundamentals are intact, consider converting a portion to a long-term dividend hold.
• 9.Track actual realized return versus the 0.73–1.92% historical range to refine your own capture rules for future $FCPT opportunities.
• 10.Monitor news, rates, and sector moves into year-end, as macro shocks can overwhelm historical capture patterns.