Formula Systems (1985) Ltd. (FORTY)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical win rates are modest: Quick Capture (Buy 7d / Sell 1d) wins only 51.6%, while several other windows are outright negative (e.g., Buy 1d / Sell 1d at -0.89% avg return, Buy 1d / Sell 14d at -1.97%).
• •Very low 7‑day and 14‑day win rates for post‑ex holds (38.7–41.9%) and 0.0% gap fill rates indicate weak, unreliable post‑dividend recovery behavior.
• •Momentum is neutral (5‑day and 20‑day momentum slopes both 0.0000% per day), offering no tailwind; there is no short-term uptrend to support a capture trade.
• •Reported 14‑day ATR (volatility) of 0.00% and 0.0 Average Recovery Days are likely data artifacts; this uncertainty increases model risk because actual price swings and recovery times may be larger and slower than shown.
• •Dividend size is very small versus price ($0.36 on $170.50, about 0.21% of price), so transaction costs, spreads, and slippage can easily erode the expected 0.45% capture return.
• •Medium confidence level signals that the historical pattern (Avg Capture Yield 3.259%) may not be robust, especially given the relatively small sample size of 31 events.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current price, spreads, and liquidity for $FORTY to ensure transaction costs won’t overwhelm a small expected capture gain (~0.45%).
• 2.Decide if a low 0.84% forward yield and Tier 3, 45/100 Quality Score meet your long‑term income standards; if not, identify higher‑tier alternatives.
• 3.If pursuing the capture trade, plan a Quick Capture window around ex‑date: target entry 7 trading days prior and exit 1 trading day after ex‑date.
• 4.Set clear risk limits for the capture: define a maximum loss threshold (e.g., 1–1.5% below entry) given modest win rates and negative returns for longer holds.
• 5.Avoid holding significantly beyond 1 day post‑ex unless you have a separate fundamental thesis, as Buy 1d / Sell 7–14d strategies show negative average returns (-1.56% to -1.97%).
• 6.Monitor for unusual volatility or news into the ex‑dividend date, as the reported 0.00% ATR and 0.0 recovery days are likely not representative of real risk.
• 7.Review portfolio concentration and ensure any FORTY position size (for trading or income) aligns with your overall risk and sector exposure limits.