General Dynamics Corporation (GD)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Friday, January 16, 2026
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Jan 16, 2026
Dividend
$1.5000
Forward Yield
1.64%
Payment Date
Feb 6, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 3Medium Confidence
Capture Score
77Long-Term Score
50Quality
50Opportunity Rank
55Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -91 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Fri, Jan 9
Target entry approximately 7 days before the 2026-01-16 ex-date (around 2026-01-09), ideally on a minor intraday or single-day pullback if available.
Ex-Date
Fri, Jan 16
Dividend locked in
Exit
Sat, Jan 17
Plan to exit 1 trading day after the ex-date (around 2026-01-20, adjusted for market holidays), unless an unusually large adverse move warrants earlier risk management.
Expected Return
+4.46%
Historical Win Rate
74%
Risk Factors
- •Macro and sector headlines (defense spending, geopolitics, interest rates) can overwhelm historical patterns despite a strong 74.3% win rate for the 7d/1d strategy.
- •Medium overall Confidence Level and a Quality Score of 60/100 indicate this is a statistically attractive setup but not a low-risk, high-conviction outlier.
- •ATR of 1.98% shows meaningful short-term volatility; adverse moves can temporarily exceed the $1.50 dividend and expected capture, especially around news.
- •Historical Average Recovery Days of 20.6 means deeper drawdowns may require several weeks to normalize, which can be problematic for traders needing quick capital turnover.
- •Forward yield of only 1.78% means the raw dividend is small relative to price; the strategy’s edge is based on historical price behavior, which can change without notice.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm exact ex-dividend date (2026-01-16) and adjust for any market calendar changes before placing trades.
- 2.For long-term investors, decide target allocation to GD as a moderate-yield, dividend-growth holding given its 60/100 Quality and Long-Term Scores and 1.78% forward yield.
- 3.For the capture trade, prepare to enter roughly 7 trading days before ex-date (around 2026-01-09), ideally on a minor pullback to improve risk/reward.
- 4.Size the capture position based on volatility (14-day ATR 1.98%) and personal risk limits, assuming price swings of around 2% are normal noise.
- 5.Place a provisional exit plan to sell 1 trading day after ex-date (around 2026-01-20) and predefine a maximum loss or adverse price move that would trigger an earlier exit.
- 6.Monitor short-term momentum into the entry window; confirm that 5-day and 20-day slopes remain positive or at least not sharply negative before committing to the capture trade.
- 7.Track news and macro events related to defense/aerospace and interest rates, as large headlines can override the historical 74.3% win rate and 100% gap-fill statistics.
- 8.Review post-trade results versus the expected 4.46% capture return and historical behavior (Average Recovery Days 20.6) to refine future position sizing and timing in GD.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +4.12% | 78% | 191 ex-dates |
Quick CaptureBest Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +4.46% | 74% | 191 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +4.94% | 71% | 191 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +4.50% | 70% | 191 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +4.91% | 69% | 191 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
GD offers a solid but modest long-term dividend profile: Tier 2 quality, a 60/100 long-term score, and a 1.78% forward yield support dependable but not high income. For dividend capture, the setup is attractive: the recommended 7-day-before / 1-day-after strategy shows a 4.46% expected return with a 74.3% win rate and 100% 7–14 day gap-fill history, supported by mildly positive momentum and manageable volatility.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for GD
Avg Capture Yield
4.52%
Avg Recovery Days
20.6
7-Day Gap Fill
100%
14-Day Gap Fill
100%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.