Intuit Inc. (INTU)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Friday, January 9, 2026
Trade Timeline
Risk Factors
- •Medium Opportunity Rank (79/100) and Capture Score (58/100) signal that this is not a top-tier capture setup.
- •Historical 7-day win rate is only 50.9% and 14-day win rate 63.2%, so outcomes are far from guaranteed in any single trade.
- •Average capture yield of 0.219% is small relative to normal price swings (ATR 2.04%), meaning typical volatility can easily overwhelm the dividend effect.
- •Average recovery time of 20.8 days exceeds the 14-day exit window, so the stock may not be fully recovered by the time you exit.
- •Current yield is low (0.71%), so the raw dividend itself provides limited downside cushion if price moves against the trade.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date of 2026-01-09 and payment date of 2026-01-16 with your broker or data source before placing orders.
- 2.For long-term investors, decide if a 0.71% yield with a Quality Score of 60/100 and Tier 2 rating fits your dividend growth and total-return goals.
- 3.Size the position assuming technology-sector volatility and a 14-day ATR of 2.04% to keep dollar risk within your limits.
- 4.For a capture trade, schedule or place a limit buy order for 1 trading day before ex-date, seeking a reasonable entry near prevailing prices.
- 5.Plan an exit roughly 14 days after ex-date, using a limit or bracket order that respects the historical 1.44% average return target and your personal risk/return parameters.
- 6.Monitor price action relative to the dividend amount and ATR; be prepared to cut the trade early if price action or broader market conditions deteriorate sharply.
- 7.Review results after the trade window to compare your outcome with the historical 1.44% expected return and 64.9% win rate assumptions.
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
14-Day HoldBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +1.44% | 65% | 57 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.26% | 58% | 57 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.83% | 58% | 57 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.32% | 54% | 57 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | -0.04% | 53% | 57 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
INTU offers a solid, Tier 2 long-term dividend profile with a modest 0.71% forward yield, better suited for total-return and dividend growth investors than for high current income. For dividend capture, the historical 1.44% average return and 64.9% win rate on a 1d-before / 14d-after strategy are attractive but must be weighed against medium conviction scores, modest capture yield, and average recovery of 20.8 days.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.