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Dividend Opportunities/ITRN/Dec 29, 2025

Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN)

Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Monday, December 29, 2025

Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Dec 29, 2025
Dividend
$0.5000
Forward Yield
4.61%
Payment Date
Jan 15, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 2Medium Confidence
Capture Score
50
Long-Term Score
50
Quality
50
Opportunity Rank
79
Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
14-Day Hold
Only -109 days until ex-date

Trade Timeline

Entry
Sun, Dec 28
Plan entry 1 trading day before the 2025-12-29 ex-dividend date (i.e., on the prior trading day), targeting capture of the $0.50 dividend and the historically favorable 14-day post-ex performance.
Ex-Date
Mon, Dec 29
Dividend locked in
Exit
Mon, Jan 12
Exit approximately 14 trading days after the 2025-12-29 ex-dividend date, aligning with the backtested 1.89% average return and 66.1% win rate for the Buy 1d / Sell 14d strategy.
Expected Return
+1.89%
Historical Win Rate
66%

Risk Factors

  • •Historical 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are both 0.0%, indicating that past price drops around ex-date have not consistently retraced quickly to pre-dividend levels; this undermines confidence in short-term mean reversion.
  • •The recommended 1d before / 14d after strategy has an attractive 1.89% average return and 66.1% win rate, but the overall Capture Score is only 50/100, signaling a mixed, not outstanding, capture profile.
  • •Shorter-term strategies show weaker payoff (e.g., Buy 1d / Sell 1d only 0.55% avg return despite a 60.7% win rate), so profits are more dependent on holding the full 14-day window and being exposed to market swings.
  • •Momentum is flat (5-day and 20-day momentum slopes both 0.0000% per day), so there is no positive trend support; if sentiment turns negative, there is little technical cushion.
  • •The reported 14-day ATR (volatility) is 0.00%, which is likely a data artifact; true volatility may be higher than indicated, meaning drawdowns around the ex-date could be underestimated.

Action Checklist

  • 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date of 2025-12-29 and ensure you can trade 1 business day prior.
  • 2.Review current fundamentals (earnings, payout ratio, cash flows) to validate dividend sustainability beyond the 50/100 Quality and Long-Term Scores.
  • 3.Evaluate your portfolio’s sector and geographic exposure to ensure adding ITRN fits diversification goals.
  • 4.If pursuing the capture strategy, schedule a buy order 1 trading day before the ex-date at or near market close, considering limit orders if liquidity is an issue.
  • 5.Plan an exit about 14 trading days after the ex-date in line with the historical 1.89% average return and 66.1% win rate for the Buy 1d / Sell 14d strategy.
  • 6.Monitor price action and news from entry through the 14-day window, ready to cut the trade early if adverse company-specific or macro events arise.
  • 7.Size the position conservatively, given the medium Confidence Level and only 50/100 Capture Score, to keep single-name risk controlled.
Scenario Analysis
StrategyAvg ReturnWin RateHistorical Events
14-Day HoldBest
Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after
+1.89%66%56 ex-dates
Classic Capture
Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after
+0.54%63%56 ex-dates
Same-Day
Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after
+0.55%61%56 ex-dates
Quick Capture
Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after
+1.19%57%56 ex-dates
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After
Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after
+0.99%52%56 ex-dates

* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Analysis Summary

ITRN offers a solid 4.61% forward yield with mid-range quality and long-term scores (both 50/100), making it a reasonable but not elite income holding. For dividend capture, the historical Buy 1d / Sell 14d strategy shows promising stats (1.89% avg return, 66.1% win rate), yet zero gap-fill rates and only average capture metrics suggest a medium-quality, risk-aware trade rather than a slam dunk.

Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for ITRN
Avg Capture Yield
1.58%
Avg Recovery Days
0.0
7-Day Gap Fill
0%
14-Day Gap Fill
0%

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.