Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Monday, January 5, 2026
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Jan 5, 2026
Dividend
$0.0033
Forward Yield
0.18%
Payment Date
Feb 9, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 2Medium Confidence
Capture Score
70Long-Term Score
50Quality
50Opportunity Rank
79Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -102 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Sun, Jan 4
Target entry near the close 1 trading day before the 2026-01-05 ex-dividend date, aligning with the Classic Capture (Buy 1d / Sell 7d) setup.
Ex-Date
Mon, Jan 5
Dividend locked in
Exit
Mon, Jan 12
Plan to exit around the close 7 trading days after the ex-dividend date, unless an earlier strong price pop delivers the expected ~3% move.
Expected Return
+2.96%
Historical Win Rate
62%
Risk Factors
- •The dividend itself is tiny ($0.0033), so the trade’s payoff is driven mainly by historical price patterns (expected 2.96% return) rather than the cash dividend.
- •Historical win rate for the chosen strategy is good but not overwhelming (61.8%), meaning outcomes are still meaningfully probabilistic.
- •Volatility is notable (14-day ATR 2.91%), so price swings can easily dwarf the dividend amount and may cause short-term drawdowns.
- •Macro or Brazil-specific risk (currency, regulation, macro shocks) can overpower historical patterns despite strong 7- and 14-day gap fill rates (99.7%).
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm exact ex-dividend date (2026-01-05) and payment details ($0.0033 per share; pay date 2026-02-09) with your broker.
- 2.Review your objective: prioritize this as a short-term dividend capture, not a long-term income position, given the 0.18% forward yield.
- 3.Set a watchlist alert for ITUB 1 trading day before ex-date to evaluate price action and spreads into the close.
- 4.Plan entry near the close 1 day before ex-dividend, consistent with the Classic Capture (Buy 1d / Sell 7d) strategy and its historical 2.96% expected return and 61.8% win rate.
- 5.Size the position conservatively, accounting for ITUB’s 14-day ATR of 2.91% and your risk tolerance, since volatility can easily exceed the dividend amount.
- 6.Define an exit plan: baseline is selling 7 trading days after ex-date, but consider taking profits earlier if the price move approximates the expected ~3% capture.
- 7.Set stop-loss or mental risk limits based on volatility (e.g., a maximum percentage drawdown) to prevent a small capture trade from becoming a large loss.
- 8.Post-trade, log outcome versus the historical averages (return, days to recovery) to refine your own capture rules for ITUB and similar setups.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +2.41% | 63% | 335 ex-dates |
Classic CaptureBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +2.96% | 62% | 335 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +3.10% | 61% | 334 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +2.95% | 60% | 334 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +3.02% | 58% | 334 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
ITUB is an average-quality, Tier 2 bank for long-term dividend income, with a very small current payout (0.18% forward yield) and only moderate long-term appeal. However, its historical price behavior around ex-dividend dates supports a strong dividend-capture profile: the Classic Capture (buy 1 day before, sell 7 days after) has an expected ~2.96% return with a 61.8% win rate and near-complete 7–14 day gap fills.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for ITUB
Avg Capture Yield
1.87%
Avg Recovery Days
27.8
7-Day Gap Fill
100%
14-Day Gap Fill
100%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.