Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Wednesday, December 31, 2025
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Dec 31, 2025
Dividend
$1.6100
Forward Yield
2.57%
Payment Date
Jan 9, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 1Medium Confidence
Capture Score
79Long-Term Score
80Quality
80Opportunity Rank
100Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -107 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Tue, Dec 30
Enter 1 day before the ex-dividend date
Ex-Date
Wed, Dec 31
Dividend locked in
Exit
Wed, Jan 7
Exit 7 days after the ex-dividend date
Expected Return
+4.33%
Historical Win Rate
64%
Risk Factors
- •Medium confidence level indicates some uncertainty
- •Volatility with 14-day ATR at 2.05%
Action Checklist
- 1.Review stock fundamentals
- 2.Enter position 1 day before ex-date
- 3.Monitor price and momentum
- 4.Exit position 7 days post ex-date
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +3.96% | 65% | 160 ex-dates |
Classic CaptureBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +4.33% | 64% | 160 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +4.60% | 62% | 160 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +4.09% | 59% | 160 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +4.21% | 55% | 160 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
Illinois Tool Works Inc. ($ITW) presents a solid opportunity for both long-term dividend investing and a high-quality dividend capture trade. Consider entering the classic capture strategy a day before the ex-dividend date.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for ITW
Avg Capture Yield
3.94%
Avg Recovery Days
8.8
7-Day Gap Fill
99%
14-Day Gap Fill
99%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.