Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (MGR)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Volatility is elevated with a 14-day ATR of 1.80%, so short-term price swings can easily exceed the $0.3672 dividend and expected 1.93% capture.
• •Confidence level is MEDIUM, not high, meaning past patterns may be less reliable in changing market conditions.
• •Forward yield of 6.84% suggests the market may be pricing in some business or earnings risk that could trigger downside moves unrelated to the dividend.
• •Sample sizes for all strategies are modest (25 observations), so statistical robustness is limited.
• •Quick exits can miss the historically strong gap fill behavior (96.0% 7–14 day gap fill rate) if recovery occurs later than the 1-day post‑ex window.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm exact ex-dividend (2025-12-29) and payment (2025-12-30) dates with a live data source before trading.
• 2.Size the position assuming a short-term trade and elevated volatility (14-day ATR 1.80%) so that normal swings do not exceed risk tolerance.
• 3.Plan entry roughly 7 trading days before ex-date, consistent with the Buy 7d / Sell 1d strategy (1.93% avg return, 72.0% win rate, sample size 25).
• 4.Set a clear exit rule for 1 day after ex-date, unless price action or news materially changes the risk/reward.
• 5.Monitor price behavior around the ex-date; be prepared for moves larger than the $0.3672 dividend due to the relatively high ATR.
• 6.If considering a long-term position, cap allocation given only moderate quality (60/100) and Long-Term Score (60/100), and reassess fundamentals and payout safety from up-to-date financials.
• 7.Review other opportunities with higher quality scores or long-term scores if the primary objective is durable, growing dividend income.