Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (MGRD)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Monday, December 29, 2025
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Dec 29, 2025
Dividend
$0.2625
Forward Yield
6.72%
Payment Date
Dec 30, 2025
Opportunity Scores
Tier 3Low Confidence
Capture Score
42Long-Term Score
35Quality
35Opportunity Rank
63Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -109 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Sun, Dec 28
Enter on the trading day immediately before the ex-dividend date, targeting a price near the current $15.63 level.
Ex-Date
Mon, Dec 29
Dividend locked in
Exit
Mon, Jan 5
Plan to exit 7 calendar days after the ex-dividend date per the recommended Classic Capture setup (Buy 1d / Sell 7d), which historically shows a 1.06% expected return and 64.7% win rate.
Expected Return
+1.06%
Historical Win Rate
65%
Risk Factors
- •Low-quality, low-confidence profile: Quality Score 35/100, Capture Score 42/100, and LOW Confidence Level mean historical patterns may not repeat reliably.
- •Poor gap behavior: 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are both 0.0%, indicating the stock often fails to retrace the ex-dividend drop within the typical capture window.
- •Small and uncertain historical sample: Scenario analysis is based on only 17 observations, which is statistically thin for robust strategy inference.
- •No observable momentum/volatility data: 5-day and 20-day momentum slopes are 0.0000% and 14-day ATR is 0.00%, suggesting either illiquidity or data issues; both can create slippage and spread risk around the ex-date.
- •Asymmetric downside risk: While the Average Capture Yield is 1.510%, a 41.2% win rate for the Buy 1d / Sell 1d strategy and Tier 3 quality imply meaningful risk that price does not support the dividend drop.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm liquidity, spreads, and any updated price action for MGRD before the ex-dividend date, as 0.00% ATR and flat momentum suggest possible data or liquidity issues.
- 2.If pursuing a capture trade, schedule entry for 1 trading day before the 2025-12-29 ex-dividend date, aiming near the current $15.63 level while respecting your risk limits.
- 3.Set a defined exit plan to sell approximately 7 days after the ex-dividend date per the Classic Capture strategy (historical 1.06% expected return, 64.7% win rate).
- 4.Size the position conservatively given the LOW Confidence Level, 35/100 Quality Score, and 42/100 Capture Score to limit downside from adverse price moves.
- 5.Monitor price behavior closely around ex-date since 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are 0.0%, meaning the stock may not recover the dividend drop within the capture window.
- 6.Do not treat MGRD as a core long-term dividend holding; if held beyond the capture window, review fundamentals and dividend announcements regularly for cut risk.
- 7.Set pre-defined maximum loss or stop levels based on your risk tolerance, given the poor long-term and quality scores.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Classic CaptureBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +1.06% | 65% | 17 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.12% | 65% | 17 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +1.17% | 65% | 17 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +0.70% | 59% | 17 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.26% | 41% | 17 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
MGRD offers a high forward yield of 6.72% but carries low quality (35/100) and a Tier 3 rating, making it unattractive as a core long-term dividend holding. For short-term traders, the Classic Capture setup (buy 1 day pre ex-date, sell 7 days after) shows a 1.06% expected return with a 64.7% win rate, but low confidence, zero gap fill rates, and thin data make this a speculative capture trade rather than a high-conviction opportunity.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for MGRD
Avg Capture Yield
1.51%
Avg Recovery Days
0.0
7-Day Gap Fill
0%
14-Day Gap Fill
0%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.