OR Royalties Inc. (OR)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Capture Score is relatively low at 39/100, signaling only moderate edge for short-term dividend capture.
• •Near-term price momentum is negative (5-day slope -0.2533%/day and 20-day slope -0.0228%/day), which contradicts ideal positive-momentum setup.
• •ATR of 3.19% reflects notable volatility, meaning price swings around ex-date can easily exceed the $0.11 dividend (0.29% of price).
• •While 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are 100%, recovery takes on average 10.9 days, so capital is exposed to market risk for a relatively long capture window.
• •Historical sample size for strategies (37 cases) is decent but not large, so the 3.08% expected return and 70.3% win rate for the 1d/14d strategy carry statistical uncertainty.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm exact trading calendar and liquidity for $OR around the 2025-12-31 ex-dividend date.
• 2.Plan entry 1 trading day before ex-date (near the close) to align with the recommended 14-day capture strategy.
• 3.Size the position assuming elevated volatility (ATR 3.19%), recognizing the $0.11 dividend is small relative to typical price swings.
• 4.Set a predefined exit window about 14 trading days after ex-date, while monitoring for earlier exit if target return is reached.
• 5.Track price action closely post–ex-date to ensure the historical 7–14 day 100% gap fill pattern is holding in this instance.
• 6.Limit position to a tactical allocation given the medium Confidence Level, low Capture Score (39/100), and negative short-term momentum.
• 7.For long-term investors, reassess fit within your income strategy given the modest 1.17% yield and mid-range quality scores before committing as a core holding.