Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical capture stats are uniformly poor: 7-day and 14-day win rates at 0.0%, gap fill rates at 0.0%, and Average Capture Yield 0.000%, suggesting no observed edge.
• •Tiny dividend vs. price: $0.0200 on $14.60 (~0.14% of price per payment) means even small price moves can easily overwhelm any dividend benefit.
• •Low Capture Score of 12/100 and Opportunity Rank 20/100 explicitly flag this as an unfavorable capture setup.
• •Momentum indicators show no trend edge: 5-day and 20-day momentum slopes are 0.0000% per day, giving no directional support to a short-term trade.
• •Scenario analysis shows 0.00% average return and 0.0% win rate across all tested strategies with sample size 0, providing no empirical backing for any capture window.
• •Low Confidence Level implies that even the limited data we have is not robust enough to lean on for a tactical trade.

Action Checklist

• 1.If you currently do NOT own ORLA, avoid opening a new position solely for this $0.0200 dividend given the low yield and weak quality/capture metrics.
• 2.If you DO own ORLA for other reasons (e.g., mining exposure), you may hold through the 2026-01-12 ex-date and treat the dividend as incidental, not primary, to your thesis.
• 3.Review your broader income portfolio for higher-yield, higher-quality alternatives with stronger long-term and capture scores.
• 4.Monitor future updates on ORLA’s fundamentals, dividend policy, and any improvement in Quality, Opportunity, and Capture Scores before reconsidering a dividend-focused strategy.
• 5.Document this event as a reference point for how low-yield, low-quality, low-data situations translate into weak dividend-capture opportunities.