Pearl Diver Credit Company Inc. (PDPA)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Friday, January 16, 2026
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Jan 16, 2026
Dividend
$0.1667
Forward Yield
2.63%
Payment Date
Jan 30, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 3Low Confidence
Capture Score
43Long-Term Score
20Quality
20Opportunity Rank
64Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -91 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Thu, Jan 15
Target entry on the trading day before the 2026-01-16 ex-dividend date (i.e., buy at the close 1 day before ex-date).
Ex-Date
Fri, Jan 16
Dividend locked in
Exit
Fri, Jan 30
Plan to exit around 14 calendar days after the ex-dividend date per the recommended 14-Day Hold strategy (sell near close on that day, adjusting for weekends/holidays).
Expected Return
+0.68%
Historical Win Rate
90%
Risk Factors
- •Low overall Quality Score (20/100) and Tier 3 status raise the risk of adverse fundamental or idiosyncratic moves during the holding window.
- •Capture Score of 43/100 is only mid-range, so the edge versus randomness is limited despite a historically strong 90.0% win rate for the 1d-buy/14d-sell strategy.
- •Gap Fill Rate is 0.0% at both 7 and 14 days, meaning historical price did not consistently recover to pre-ex levels, relying instead on partial rebounds and the dividend itself.
- •Reported 14-day ATR of 0.00% and flat 5- and 20-day momentum may reflect illiquidity or data limitations rather than genuine zero volatility, increasing execution and slippage risk.
- •Low Confidence Level indicates the historical backtest (sample size 10 per scenario) may not be robust, making forward performance less reliable.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm ex-dividend (2026-01-16) and payment (2026-01-30) dates with your broker or official filings before acting.
- 2.Decide if your objective is speculative dividend capture only; do not treat PDPA as a core income holding given its 20/100 Quality and Long-Term Scores.
- 3.If pursuing the capture, plan to buy near the close 1 trading day before ex-dividend to align with the recommended 1d entry.
- 4.Size the position conservatively, given Tier 3 status, 43/100 Capture Score, and LOW confidence in the data.
- 5.Set a planned exit around 14 days after ex-date, monitoring price versus your entry to ensure the total outcome (price change + $0.1667 dividend) meets your target.
- 6.Monitor liquidity, bid–ask spreads, and any unusual price behavior because the reported 0.00% ATR and flat momentum may indicate thin trading.
- 7.Reassess if new fundamental news, dividend changes, or price volatility emerge before or during the holding window.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
14-Day HoldBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +0.68% | 90% | 10 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.55% | 80% | 10 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.75% | 80% | 10 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.23% | 60% | 10 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.13% | 50% | 10 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
PDPA looks weak as a long-term dividend holding, with a low Quality Score (20/100), Tier 3 status, and only a 2.64% forward yield. For short-term dividend capture, the 1-day-before to 14-days-after strategy shows a 0.68% expected return and a 90% historical win rate, but data quality, low confidence, and poor fundamentals make this a speculative trade rather than a core income position.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for PDPA
Avg Capture Yield
0.66%
Avg Recovery Days
0.0
7-Day Gap Fill
0%
14-Day Gap Fill
0%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.