Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Friday, January 2, 2026
Ex-date passed
Ex-Date
Jan 2, 2026
Dividend
$0.4800
Forward Yield
0.86%
Payment Date
Jan 16, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 2Medium Confidence
Capture Score
51Long-Term Score
60Quality
60Opportunity Rank
75Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only -105 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Fri, Dec 26
Target entry around 7 days before the 2026-01-02 ex-date, i.e., on or near 2025-12-26, allowing modest flexibility for price strength or intraday dips.
Ex-Date
Fri, Jan 2
Dividend locked in
Exit
Sat, Jan 3
Plan to exit 1 trading day after the 2026-01-02 ex-date (around 2026-01-05, accounting for market holidays), unless the price gap is unusually large against you.
Expected Return
+0.97%
Historical Win Rate
62%
Risk Factors
- •Historical capture performance is modest: average capture yield 0.285% vs. an expected 0.97% suggests current estimate may be optimistic.
- •Win rates are only moderate (62.0% for the 7d/1d strategy; 64.1% 7-day win rate overall), implying frequent small losses.
- •ATR at 3.40% indicates meaningful short-term volatility, so daily price moves can easily overwhelm the 0.48% dividend amount.
- •Medium confidence level and Capture Score of 51/100 point to average reliability of the historical edge.
- •Expected holding period is short but recovery can be slow on losers (average 20.5 days to recover), tying up capital if you wait for a rebound.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm ex-dividend (2026-01-02) and payment (2026-01-16) dates with your broker or data source before trading.
- 2.Decide primary goal: long-term holding vs. short-term dividend capture; avoid mixing the two plans in a single position.
- 3.If doing the Quick Capture trade, plan entry for roughly 7 days before ex-date (around 2025-12-26), using limit orders to control slippage.
- 4.Target exit 1 trading day after ex-date, unless there is an extreme move; predefine a maximum acceptable loss and a profit target.
- 5.Size the position conservatively, recognizing ATR of 3.40% can easily exceed the 0.48% dividend; consider using a smaller allocation than for core holdings.
- 6.Set alerts around ex-date and exit date to reassess price action, especially if volatility spikes or market conditions change.
- 7.If considering a long-term position, verify the latest financials (payout ratio, cash flow coverage, debt) to confirm dividend sustainability beyond the provided scores.
- 8.Review the 14-day and 7-day historical strategies (e.g., 2.95% avg return for Buy 14d/Sell 7d) and decide if you prefer a slightly longer capture window despite similar win rates.
- 9.After the trade, log the result (entry/exit prices, net return) to evaluate how closely your outcome matches the historical expected 0.97% and refine future capture criteria.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Quick CaptureBest Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.97% | 62% | 92 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +2.95% | 60% | 92 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.41% | 58% | 92 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.83% | 55% | 92 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +0.37% | 55% | 92 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
RGLD offers a relatively low 0.82% forward yield with a mid-tier Quality Score of 60/100, making it more of a growth-tilted or satellite dividend holding than a core income position. For dividend capture, the historical Quick Capture strategy (buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after) shows a 62% win rate and full gap-fill history, but the edge is modest and volatility (3.40% ATR) can easily offset the small dividend, warranting cautious position sizing.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for RGLD
Avg Capture Yield
0.28%
Avg Recovery Days
20.5
7-Day Gap Fill
100%
14-Day Gap Fill
100%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.