Source Capital, Inc. (SOR)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Thin edge: The recommended Quick Capture strategy (Buy 7d / Sell 1d) shows only 0.01% expected return with a 58.2% win rate, leaving very little room after trading costs and slippage.
• •Poor gap behavior: 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are 0.0%, indicating that post-ex-date price drops historically have not reliably recovered in the near term.
• •Low data reliability: Confidence Level is LOW and Average Recovery Days is reported as 0.0, which is likely a data artifact and reduces trust in the recovery statistics.
• •No momentum tailwind: 5-day and 20-day momentum slopes are both 0.0000% per day, offering no positive trend to support a short-term capture strategy.
• •Questionable volatility data: 14-day ATR is 0.00%, which is not realistic for a traded equity/CEF and suggests data irregularities or illiquidity risks.

Action Checklist

• 1.Clarify your objective: decide whether you are seeking long-term income or a short-term capture trade; avoid mixing both on this name.
• 2.For long-term dividend investors, compare $SOR’s 1.82% yield and Tier 3 quality (45/100) against higher-quality, higher-yield alternatives before committing capital.
• 3.If still interested for capture, focus on the Buy 14d / Sell 7d window rather than the ex-date itself, as it offers the best historical average return (0.25% with 62.4% win rate).
• 4.Evaluate trading costs and liquidity; given the tiny expected edge (0.01–0.25%), commissions, bid–ask spreads, and slippage can easily erase gains.
• 5.Size positions conservatively, treating this as a speculative trade due to the LOW confidence level and questionable volatility statistics (ATR = 0.00%).
• 6.Monitor price and volume closely into the entry window; if momentum remains flat or liquidity appears thin, consider skipping the trade.
• 7.Review updated fundamentals and distribution history for SOR before the ex-dividend date to confirm that no recent negative changes affect the payout or price behavior.