Stantec Inc. (STN)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Short-term price trend is slightly negative (5-day momentum slope -0.0134%/day and 20-day slope -0.0161%/day), so momentum is not fully aligned with a bullish capture.
• •ATR of 1.80% indicates meaningful daily volatility, which can amplify adverse moves during the 14-day hold, even though it helps capture upside.
• •Average recovery time of 24.1 days is longer than the 14-day planned exit window, so there is a risk of exiting before full price recovery after the dividend drop.
• •Win rates are strong but not guaranteed: 7-day win rate 58.2%, 14-day 69.1%, and even the best 1d/14d strategy wins 76.4% of the time, leaving about a one-in-four chance of loss.
• •Medium confidence level suggests that while backtests (55-sample size) are supportive, results may be less reliable in changing macro or stock-specific news environments around the event.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current STN price versus the $96.19 reference and check for any new company-specific news before entering.
• 2.Size the position assuming a one-in-four chance of loss on the capture trade, consistent with a 76.4% win rate.
• 3.Enter 1 trading day before the 2025-12-31 ex-dividend date, preferably on intraday weakness rather than chasing strength.
• 4.Set a soft exit plan 14 days after ex-dividend, but monitor price action and broader market conditions in case volatility spikes.
• 5.Review price relative to the ex-dividend gap and ATR (1.80%) during the hold; consider tightening stops if adverse moves exceed typical daily ranges.
• 6.For long-term investors, reassess STN’s role as a quality, low-yield compounder rather than a high-income holding, and align allocation with your income vs. growth objectives.