The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical win rate of 63.2–63.3% for the 7d buy / 1d sell strategy means roughly 1 in 3 trades still lose despite an expected return of about 0.99%.
• •Average recovery time of 44 days shows price can take over a month to fully recover the ex-dividend drop, increasing mark-to-market risk if price overshoots downwards.
• •Medium overall confidence and Quality/Long-Term Scores of 60/100 indicate some business and macro sensitivity (e.g., to interest rates, credit cycle) that could disrupt the historical pattern.
• •ATR of 1.75% reflects meaningful short-term volatility; adverse moves around macro news or bank-specific headlines can easily overwhelm the $0.77 dividend.
• •Forward yield of 3.27% is relatively modest, so the capture edge relies more on price behavior around ex-date than on a large cash payout.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm updated price, yield, and any new news on $TD closer to the 2026-01-09 ex-dividend date.
• 2.For long-term investors, decide target allocation to bank stocks and ensure TD fits within your sector and country diversification limits.
• 3.For capture traders, plan a Quick Capture trade: buy roughly 7 trading days before ex-date (around 2026-01-02) with a defined maximum position size.
• 4.Use limit orders near recent support levels and monitor 5-day and 20-day momentum to ensure they remain positive or at least neutral going into the trade.
• 5.Hold through the ex-dividend date on 2026-01-09 to receive the $0.77 dividend, then target an exit 1 trading day after ex-date (around 2026-01-12).
• 6.If price drops more than typical relative to the $0.77 dividend and ATR of 1.75%, consider extending the holding period toward 7–14 days post ex-date, guided by the 100% historical gap-fill in that window.
• 7.Set predefined stop or risk limits to avoid turning a short-term capture attempt into an unintended long-term hold if the thesis changes.
• 8.Review post-trade results against the expected ~0.99% return and ~63% win rate to refine future TD capture attempts.