TFI International Inc. (TFII)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Only moderate win probabilities: The recommended Buy 7d / Sell 1d strategy shows a 1.45% average return but with a 62.5% historical win rate, implying roughly 2 losers for every 3 winners.
• •Dividend vs. historical capture: The current dividend ($0.47 ≈ 0.44% of price) is below the historical average capture yield of 0.501%, so realized capture may be smaller than backtest averages.
• •Mixed momentum: Short-term 5-day momentum is slightly positive at +0.0705%/day, but 20-day momentum is slightly negative at -0.0399%/day, suggesting only mild trend support.
• •Event and market risk: Medium confidence level and a 14-day ATR of 1.45% mean news or broad market swings around the ex-date can easily outweigh the dividend amount.
• •Recovery time: Average recovery of 37.8 days shows that when price gaps down on ex-date, it may take over a month to fully recover, which is a risk for strictly short-duration capture trades.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm latest fundamentals: review recent earnings, payout ratio, and guidance to ensure the 1.77% forward dividend remains well covered.
• 2.Define objective: decide if your primary goal is long-term dividend growth holding or a short-term capture trade, as risk/holding period differ.
• 3.For long-term investors: size the position according to risk tolerance, acknowledging moderate volatility (14-day ATR 1.45%) and relatively low yield.
• 4.For capture traders: plan an entry about 7 days before the 2025-12-31 ex-dividend date, around the model’s recommended window.
• 5.Set exit rules: target selling 1 trading day after ex-date, but predefine a maximum loss or extended hold plan if the ex-dividend drop exceeds expectations.
• 6.Monitor price behavior: watch 5-day momentum and intraday action into ex-date; consider reducing size if momentum turns decisively negative.
• 7.Manage expectations: recognize the Quick Capture strategy’s 62.5% win rate and 1.45% average return mean outcomes are probabilistic, not guaranteed.
• 8.Review recovery stats: if you are caught in a drawdown, note that average recovery to fill the dividend gap historically takes ~37.8 days; decide in advance if you are willing to hold that long.