The York Water Company (YORW)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Recommended Quick Capture (Buy 7d / Sell 1d) has very slim expected return of 0.05% with only a 51.0% win rate, leaving little room for slippage or costs
• •Short-window strategies around the ex-date (Buy 1d / Sell 1d, 1d/7d, 1d/14d) all show negative average returns (-0.31% to -0.66%) despite ~46–50% win rates, indicating poor capture dynamics
• •7-day and 14-day gap fill rates of 0.0% and Average Recovery Days of 0.0 indicate that price does not reliably recover the dividend quickly, undermining classic capture logic
• •Momentum is flat (5-day and 20-day momentum slopes both 0.0000% per day), so there is no positive trend to support a short-term capture trade
• •ATR (volatility) reported as 0.00% suggests either extremely low volatility or data limitations; in either case, small expected capture (0.05%) can be easily overwhelmed by even tiny price moves or trading costs

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm fundamental metrics not provided here (payout ratio, earnings stability, debt levels) to validate long-term dividend sustainability for YORW.
• 2.If investing for income, size YORW as a supporting, not primary, dividend position given its moderate 2.81% yield and Tier 2 quality.
• 3.Avoid classic dividend capture around this ex-date; skip Buy 1d / Sell 1d and other post–ex-date strategies that show negative historical returns.
• 4.If trading tactically, consider only a pre–ex-date carry trade (e.g., Buy ~14 days before ex-date, Sell ~7 days before) where historical data show a modest 0.24% average return and 57.0% win rate.
• 5.Incorporate transaction costs and bid/ask spreads into any short-term strategy, as the small expected edge (0.05% for the recommended Quick Capture) is easily erased.
• 6.Reassess near ex-date for any new momentum or volatility signals, since current momentum slopes are flat and ATR appears abnormally low.