Graco Inc. (GGG)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Medium conviction: overall Confidence Level is MEDIUM and Long-Term Score is 60/100, so outcomes are historically favorable but not extremely robust.
• •Volatility: 14-day ATR of 2.10% is moderate; daily swings can easily exceed the 0.36% cash dividend, so price action, not just the dividend, will drive results.
• •Event risk: any company- or macro-specific news around the ex-dividend window could overwhelm historical patterns and reduce the 62.4–71.3% short-window win rates.
• •Sample size stability: while the scenario tests use a solid sample size of 101, market regimes change and a 69.3% win rate does not eliminate the risk of meaningful drawdowns.
• •Recovery reliance: the 100% 7- and 14-day gap fill rates and 16.5 average recovery days are attractive but backward-looking and could fail in a sharp market downturn.

Action Checklist

• 1.Verify current $GGG price, ex-dividend date (2026-01-16), and dividend amount ($0.295) closer to the event for any changes.
• 2.Assess portfolio fit: decide if $GGG is for a tactical capture trade, a long-term position, or both given its 1.44% yield and Tier 2 quality.
• 3.For capture: plan to enter on the close 1 trading day before ex-dividend, aligning size with your risk tolerance and the 2.10% ATR.
• 4.Set exit rules: aim to exit about 7 trading days after ex-dividend, but predefine a max loss and/or time stop if the historical 69.3% win-rate pattern fails.
• 5.Monitor price action vs. history: watch how the stock trades through ex-date and the following week, noting whether price recovers in line with the 100% historical gap fill rates.
• 6.Re-evaluate after the trade window: compare realized outcome to the expected 1.68% average return and update your confidence in $GGG as a repeat capture candidate or longer-term holding.