The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Friday, January 2, 2026
Trade Timeline
Risk Factors
- •Medium overall confidence and only moderate quality/long-term scores (both 60/100) mean the backtest edge may be less robust in changing market regimes.
- •Despite a very high 7- and 14-day gap fill rate (98.5%), short-term price around the ex-date could still overshoot to the downside before recovering, creating mark-to-market stress.
- •Historical 7-day win rate of just 52.3% shows that immediate post-ex-date behavior can be noisy; the edge comes from holding through the typical ~21-day average recovery, not from ultra-short holds.
- •ATR of 1.87% indicates meaningful daily volatility relative to the dividend; sharp market or sector moves could dominate the dividend effect during the holding window.
- •The exceptionally high single dividend ($13.60) may attract crowded capture flows, potentially altering usual price patterns (e.g., larger than modeled ex-date drop).
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm the $13.60 dividend type (regular vs. special/variable) and payout policy from PGR’s latest filings and investor relations.
- 2.Validate ex-dividend date (2026-01-02) and payment date (2026-01-08) with a current data source before placing orders.
- 3.Assess current price action and spreads near $227.07; ensure liquidity is sufficient for your position size.
- 4.Plan a limit buy order for the trading day before ex-date (T-1), adjusting size so that a full dividend-sized drawdown plus normal ATR (~1.87%) is tolerable.
- 5.Set a holding plan consistent with the Classic Capture: target exit about 7 trading days after ex-date, but monitor price vs. historical recovery behavior.
- 6.Track post-ex-date price relative to the $13.60 drop; if recovery is unusually weak versus the 98.5% historical gap fill rate, decide in advance whether to extend hold time toward the ~21-day average recovery or cut risk.
- 7.Review overall portfolio and sector exposure to financials/insurance so this trade does not overly concentrate risk.
- 8.Document your trade thesis, entry/exit rules, and maximum loss tolerance before execution to avoid emotional decisions around volatility.
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +11.59% | 77% | 130 ex-dates |
Classic CaptureBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +10.44% | 72% | 130 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +10.27% | 70% | 130 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +10.91% | 69% | 130 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +9.96% | 67% | 130 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
PGR offers a very large upcoming dividend ($13.60 on a $227.07 price, ~23.96% forward yield), but its mid-range Quality and Long-Term scores (both 60/100) suggest this payout shouldn’t be assumed as permanently repeatable. For dividend capture, historical data are attractive: the recommended ‘Buy 1d / Sell 7d’ strategy shows a 10.44% average return with a 72.3% win rate and 98.5% gap fill rate, making this a compelling but tactical short-term opportunity rather than a pure buy-and-hold income play.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.