RGC Resources, Inc. (RGCO)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Low overall data quality: Confidence Level is LOW and Quality Score is 25/100, so historical patterns may not be reliable or may come from a weak underlying business.
• •Contradictory stats in the capture metrics: 7-day win rate (49.0%) and 14-day win rate (45.1%) are weak, yet scenario analysis shows stronger historical performance (e.g., 73.5% win rate for the recommended 7d/1d strategy) over the same 102-sample set.
• •Unrealistic or incomplete volatility data: 14-day ATR is reported as 0.00%, which is not plausible for an actively traded stock; this may distort expectations about price swings around ex-date.
• •Gap behavior uncertainty: 7-day and 14-day Gap Fill Rates are both 0.0%, implying that post–ex-date price drops may not reliably recover within two weeks, increasing the risk of being stuck in a drawdown.
• •Business and dividend risk: Low Quality and Long-Term Scores (both 25/100) increase the chance of negative fundamental news, which can overwhelm any statistical edge from historical dividend capture patterns.
• •Data/model risk: Average Recovery Days is listed as 0.0, which conflicts with zero gap fill and suggests data quality or modeling issues in the backtest.
• •Short-term strategy concentration risk: The best scenario (Buy 14d / Sell 7d) has a higher average return (2.35%) and win rate (77.5%) than the recommended quick capture, but still relies on the same potentially noisy 102-trade sample.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm ex-dividend date (2026-01-16), dividend amount ($0.2175), and current price behavior with up-to-date market data.
• 2.Review RGCO’s latest financials (earnings, payout ratio, debt metrics) to independently judge dividend safety, since quality and long-term scores are low (25/100 each).
• 3.If pursuing a capture trade, size the position conservatively given LOW confidence and contradictory stats (e.g., 7-day win rate 49.0% vs. strategy win rate 73.5%).
• 4.Target entry about 7 days before ex-date (around 2026-01-09), using limit orders near recent trading ranges to avoid overpaying.
• 5.Set predefined risk limits (e.g., maximum percentage loss or dollar risk per trade) and consider a stop-loss that accounts for typical volatility, noting ATR data (0.00%) appears unreliable.
• 6.Plan to exit 1 trading day after ex-date (around 2026-01-20, adjusted for market holidays), unless adverse news or abnormal price action warrants earlier exit.
• 7.Monitor for any company-specific news (regulatory changes, earnings surprises, dividend announcements) from now through the exit date, as fundamentals can quickly invalidate historical capture patterns.
• 8.After the trade window, review performance vs. the expected 2.12% capture return and 73.5% win rate to decide whether RGCO remains in your capture universe or should be removed.