Republic Services, Inc. (RSG)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical win rates in the 59.6–64.0% range (e.g., 64.0% for Buy 14d / Sell 7d and Buy 1d / Sell 14d) are favorable but not high enough for low-risk capture, so losses remain meaningful in a minority of trades.
• •Average capture yield of 0.542% and expected return of 0.78% are relatively small versus price risk on a $213.02 stock, so a single adverse move can erase several successful captures.
• •14-day ATR of 1.67% indicates moderate volatility; this is manageable but still larger than the dividend itself ($0.625 ≈ 0.29% of price), meaning normal price swings can overshadow the payout.
• •Average recovery time of 13.0 days aligns with the 14-day hold recommendation but implies capital may be tied up for about two weeks with no guarantee of full recovery on this specific event.
• •Confidence is only MEDIUM, reflecting that the historical dataset (sample size 89) is decent but not definitive and that future market conditions around the 2026-01-02 ex-date may differ from the historical average.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current ex-dividend and payment dates (expected ex-date 2026-01-02, pay date 2026-01-15) and ensure no corporate actions or news have changed the setup.
• 2.Decide objective: long-term dividend holding vs. short-term capture; size positions accordingly (smaller and more tactical for capture).
• 3.For capture, plan entries starting up to 14 days pre ex-date, with full position in place no later than 1 day before ex-date, aligning with the Buy 14d / Sell 7d framework.
• 4.Set a target exit window of 7 days after ex-date, with a hard stop at 14 days post ex-date if price has not reverted, respecting the 13-day average recovery and 98.9% 7–14 day gap fill history.
• 5.Use the 14-day ATR of 1.67% to calibrate stop-loss and take-profit levels so that normal volatility does not prematurely trigger exits while still capping downside.
• 6.Monitor short-term momentum (currently modestly positive: 5-day slope 0.1031%/day, 20-day slope 0.0324%/day) and broader market conditions; avoid initiating the capture if momentum turns sharply negative or volatility spikes.
• 7.For long-term investors, review how a 1.17% yield fits with portfolio income needs and consider pairing RSG with higher-yield names to reach target portfolio yield.
• 8.Reassess position size and risk given the MEDIUM confidence level and historical win rates near 60–64%, ensuring that any single trade does not materially impact total portfolio performance.